The Weekly Update - Week 14

Apr 03, 2020

Market Update

While many crypto exchanges have seen an up-tick in new customers lately, the markets remain volatile. Bitcoin doesn’t seem decoupled from the stock markets just yet, after pumping on the oil price boost this week.
March goes into the history books, but a nice recovery from the lows leaves investors hopeful. However, this is not yet reflected in the market sentiment, which has been in Extreme Fear for almost three weeks now.
We’ve also seeing a shift in the futures market these days, as BitMEX is getting dethroned and OKEx now leading the way. It will be interesting to see if BitMEX will continue to lose market share after the terrible price crash.
Another interesting aspect to follow is the upcoming halvings of both BSV and BCH, coming up next week. This can lead to drastic implications for the protocols.

Valuation

After another failed attempt to break out of a range that has been forming over the past weeks, the bitcoin price could potentially see more downside going into the weekend. With the high correlation with stock markets right now, we never know what’s next.
The futures market for bitcoin seems to be “back to normal”, after being in backwardation for a couple of weeks. We now see that the premiums are back on the futures contracts for June and September, where CME traders look more bullish than retail investors right now.

Blockchain Activity

On-chain metrics tells us that we may already have seen the local price bottom for bitcoin, as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss bounced quickly of the lows. However, we have stayed low for a while historically when this metric turns red and it will be interesting to see what’s next with the upcoming halving in just a month.
The fees as a percentage of miner revenues jumped sharply after the price drop in March and is a good indication of increased network demand on the Bitcoin network.

K33 Research